Credibility Of Pollsters At Stake

Longtime pollster Frank Luntz says there is a lot riding on this election for him and his entire profession.

Luntz says the colossal miss by pollsters four years ago in their prediction of a winner in the presidential race makes it imperative for his colleagues to get it right this time.

That said, I don’t have confidence in the polling industry. Mostly because I do not think people are entirely truthful when approached by a pollster or called on the phone. It’s their right not to be.

I have a Texas area code because I did not change my number when I returned to Illinois in 2012. So, when I get an unidentified call from Houston or Amarillo, I just don’t answer. This time of year it’s a pollster.

I have the same problem when I call people for the first time around here. They are convinced the Texas number that comes up on their phone is either a pollster or a sales person. They don’t answer.

In the last presidential election there were people who would not admit to anyone, much less a pollster, that they supported a populist. People won’t tell a pollster something they feel is socially unacceptable. As the response rate plummets, so does the accuracy.

And maybe some just tell an untruth. It might be as simple as…..it’s none of your business what I do in the sanctity of the polling booth.

That’s fair enough. Not everybody is so transparent to fly a flag or put a sign in their yard. They think it is nobody’s business. And that is why I think Frank Luntz should be worried about the future of his profession.