Monday, March 23, 2020

A Tale Of Two Cities



It is far more complex than this, but let me lay out the pros of social distancing when a medical intervention is not available. 

This is a tale of two cities. The year was 1918. The Spanish Flu was starting its assault on our country and the world. The cities….Philadelphia and St. Louis. A paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences says the two cities took very different approaches.

In an effort to sell war bonds and spike morale for our soldiers leaving for World War I, the city of Philadelphia threw a parade that drew 200,000 people despite warnings that the flu was spreading, especially among the soldiers.  They were at the center of the festivities. That wasn’t a good idea.

Days after, hospitals in Philly were filled with patients suffering or dying from the Spanish flu. Like Corona, there was no treatment available. The final death toll in the City of Brotherly Love was 4,500.

In St. Louis, things were different. After detecting its first cases, St. Louis closed buildings such as schools, churches, courtrooms and libraries….the same approach we are now living…

The result? The social distancing precautions were smart as deaths in St. Louis were 347 per 100,000 people---less than half the rate of Philly. Worldwide, some estimates say 50-million people died from the Spanish Flu.

With that, I won’t second guess the Governor’s “stay-at-home” order.

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