A Black Eye

 

Once again the polling industry was engaged in an epic fail in predicting several key states during this week’s presidential election.

Texas was supposed to be a toss-up and the President won by six-points…..another high profile poll had the former vice president winning Ohio comfortably and Florida as a toss-up. I said a few weeks ago that the polls, which were horrible in 2016, were under the gun to produce this time around. They didn’t.

As I have suggested, it isn’t really all their fault. People like me do not pick up when it is obvious a call to my cellphone is a pollster. I don’t think I’m alone in not wanting to be polled prior to an election.

One veteran political consultant, Neil Kwatra, says most of the notable public polls are nowhere near as well-funded and accurate as the ones used by the candidates themselves. Money was flowing in this campaign. Did you see  the cash thrown at the unsuccessful challenge to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky? The campaigns spent over $100-million dollars collectively. I bet they had good polling.

It is obvious that voter turnout also was a factor. Few anticipated the record numbers who surged to the polls, especially on election day.

It is time for some real reflection in the polling industry. They got it wrong again in many of the battleground states.

I’m not trying to say it had an impact on the outcome. It probably didn’t. I am saying trust in national polls got another black eye on  Tuesday.